Economics 314

Macroeconomic Theory
Spring 2017
Jeffrey Parker, Reed College

March 24 paper of the week

Assigned paper

Phillips, A.W. 1958. The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1862-1957. Economica 25 (100):283-299.

Reading suggestions

  • This is the classic work that gave the Phillips curve its name. There is an interesting article by A. G. Sleeman on the origins of this paper and its publication in a recent issue of Journal of Economic Perspectives.
  • The term "trade cycle" is an antiquated, English term for what we now call the "business cycle."
  • There is a good deal of detail in this paper that can be read quickly; your focus should be on the method and results.
  • Be sure to note that Phillips does his analysis in terms of wage inflation, whereas most modern expositions of the Phillips curve use price inflation. They often move together, but when real wages are not constant they are not the same.

Questions for analysis

  1. Characterize the mix of theory and empirical analysis in the Phillips paper. How convincing do you find each of these two components of the analysis?
  2. In light of the empirical difficulties that the Phillips curve encountered beginning in the 1970s and the theories that were developed to explain them, why is it important that the U.K. was on the gold standard (or a gold exchange standard) during the vast majority of the sample period?
  3. Based on the graphs of the various sub-periods, what seem to be the typical values for what would later be called the "natural rate of unemployment"?
  4. What would be the effects of a non-zero inflation rate or a non-zero rate of steady-state real-wage growth? What can we infer from the level of wage inflation that we observe at the natural rate of unemployment?