Economics 314

Macroeconomic Theory

Spring 2014

Jeffrey Parker, Reed College

 

April 4 paper of the week

Assigned paper

Ball, Laurence. What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio? In Monetary Policy, ed. by N. Gregory Mankiw. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press. (Book on reserve)

Reading suggestions

This paper is fairly straight-forward: no fancy math or complex econometrics.

Questions for analysis

  1. How does Ball define the sacrifice ratio, both mathematically and intuitively?
  2. Given the models of Lucas, Fischer, etc., would a country incur any sacrifice if the decline in inflation were correctly anticipated? What does this imply about the impact of central-bank credibility on the sacrifice ratio?
  3. Would you expect countries with more elastic short-run aggregate-supply curves to have higher or lower sacrifice ratios? Why? Given the slope of the Lucas supply curve in Romer's equation (6.83), are the countries with the highest sacrifice ratios in Ball's Table 5.3 the ones that you would expect?
  4. Which of the following is supported by Ball's empirical results?
    • Reversing large inflation is less costly than reversing small ones, per point of inflation reduction.
    • "Cold turkey" inflation reduction is more costly than "gradualism."
    • Countries with more wage flexibility incur less unemployment during disinflation.